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Is Vermont's Economy De-linked? PDF Print E-mail
Business News
Written by Matt Considine   
Sunday, 22 March 2009 10:42

In general, while Vermont's economic activity moves in the same direction as the overall economy, the state doesn't seem to see the same magnitude of change as more populous states.

A recent article on Bloomberg.com points to some "built in" reasons why this has been true in the past and why it is that eighteen months into this recession, the same trend seems to be holding.

Also of note:

  • In the latest figures from the Labor Department, unemployment rates increased in 42 of 50 states. Vermont's rate was unchanged, while that of 7 other states decreased.
  • On the housing front, while US foreclosures increased 6 percent in February (according to RealtyTrac), Vermont had the second lowest rate in the nation. This is due in part to a relatively low exposure to sub-prime mortgage issuance.
The Vermont Housing Finance Agency in this article notes that while retail sales declines and construction job losses may continue in '09 and perhaps into '10, the magnitude of the downturn will not likely be as great here as in other states.

What does this all mean?

"Delinked" may be too strong a word. But for good reasons Vermont is not as exposed to the issues faced in other parts of the country.

If your primary business activity is supported by local activity, that's probably good news. Home values have been fairly constant over the last couple of years, with a small decline in '09 expected by some economists. So while people will likely cut back on expenses where they can, there shouldn't be the fear that the bottom is falling out of the economy which is what homeowners elsewhere in the country are feeling.

If your business is dependent on activity in other parts of the country, then it won't come as a surprise to see some change in demand. In fact, you've probably already seen it. So redoubling one's efforts to diversify into other markets should be one of the "high priority" items on the to-do list. Paying down debt or refinancing to take advantage of lower rates is also worth close scrutiny.

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